Publications

Preprints

We endeavour to share our research as quickly as possible through preprints to inform current scholarly debates, policy, and practice. Preprints have not yet been peer-reviewed.

• See, S., Opdyke, A., and Banki, S. “Overlapping Disaster and Conflict Events Reveal Gaps in Displacement Reporting in the Philippines.” doi: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7043272/v1Cite

Journal Articles

• Pearson, W., Opdyke, A., Gabriel, K.A., Sabio, G.C., Santiago, J., and Mendoza, J.E. (2026) “Fire Resilience in Urban Settlements: Identifying Causes of Ignition and Spread in Quezon City” International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment. doi: 10.1108/IJDRBE-02-2026-0020Cite
  Abstract

  Purpose This study examines the perceived drivers of fire ignition and spread in dense urban settlements in Quezon City, the Philippines, comparing how fire professionals and residents account for them. Design/methodology/approach This study draws on 24 semi-structured interviews with 5 fire professionals and 19 residents of two high-density informal settlements. Interviews were analyzed thematically, with professional and resident perspectives on the same hazards compared directly. Findings Fire professionals and residents agreed on the principal physical drivers: electrical failure from grid overloading and unsafe cooking were the main sources of ignition, and combustible materials and restricted emergency access the main drivers of spread. The two groups diverged on cause. Professionals attributed hazardous practices to individual inattentiveness, whereas residents construed them as adaptations forced by poverty and confined space, a divergence that helps explain the limited effect of conventional, negligence-based safety education. Residents also contested the assumed link between dwelling density and spread, attributing it instead to material composition and spatial configuration. Practical implications The spatial conditions that foreclose municipal suppression cannot easily be reversed, so resilience strategy should pivot toward decentralized “soft” infrastructure: behaviorally targeted education, localized early warning and community-held suppression, financed and governed through existing barangay disaster-risk structures. Framing hazardous practice as forced adaptation rather than negligence also favors harm-reduction approaches, which work with residents’ material realities, over punitive enforcement that tends to drive unsafe practices underground. Originality/value This study reframes well-documented fire-risk factors through a “space–risk nexus” in which the spatial saturation of the built environment forces the socio-economic adaptations that become physical fire hazards. The framework shows that this saturation makes standard infrastructure-based fire-safety codes structurally inapplicable, not merely difficult to enforce. Informality, therefore, emerges as a physical condition as much as a legal one, and the analysis indicates that resilience is better served by community-based “soft” infrastructure than by hard-infrastructure retrofits, which would require large-scale displacement in already-saturated settlements.
• Opdyke, A., Latiph, A., Shrief, M.C., and Yape, E. (2026) “Displacement, Infrastructure Deficits, and Public Health Risks in Post-Conflict Marawi during the COVID-19 Pandemic.” International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment. 17 (2), 297–313. doi: 10.1108/IJDRBE-06-2025-0069Cite
  Abstract

  Purpose This research aims to examine how conflict-displaced households in Marawi in the Philippines navigated challenges in housing, water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and public health during the COVID-19 pandemic, and identifies implications for built environment resilience and inclusive recovery. Design/methodology/approach A mixed-methods cross-sectional survey was administered to 428 internally displaced households in Marawi. Quantitative data on housing damage, tenure, WASH access and self-reported ability to self-isolate were analysed, supported by thematic interpretation. Descriptive and inferential statistics explored associations between infrastructural variables and perceived pandemic resilience. Findings Findings reveal extensive post-conflict housing damage, tenure insecurity and overcrowding, with many households lacking sufficient space or facilities to implement basic health protocols. While hygiene practices were commonly reported, inadequate access to reliable water and sanitation infrastructure, as well as intermittent electricity, hindered effective disease prevention. Respondents identified these physical limitations, alongside governance challenges and limited consultation in recovery processes, as barriers to resilience. Despite this, many expressed trust in government and NGO efforts, although gaps in participation and service quality remained. Research limitations/implications Cross-sectional design limits causality. Further research should include longitudinal and comparative studies in similar settings to assess long-term resilience. Practical implications Findings underline the need for integrated rebuilding programmes that prioritise tenure security, infrastructural upgrades (WASH, electricity) and inclusive planning to bolster resilience in displacement-affected built environments. Originality/value This study uniquely integrates public health, housing, WASH and governance analyses in a protracted displacement and pandemic context. It highlights how built environment deficits undermine health resilience and how participatory recovery could bridge this gap.
• Miranda, C., Opdyke, A., Ying, F., Becker, J., and Toma, C. (2026) “The Influence of Builders on Seismic Strengthening of Housing.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 139, 106134. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106134Cite
  Abstract

  Trust in information sources is essential for bridging the gap between intentions to seek seismic preparedness advice and the adoption of protective measures, such as retrofitting homes. Builders are one of the most frequently consulted sources when homeowners seek to strengthen or repair their homes for earthquake resistance. While research has focused on homeowners, engineers, and the seismic risk of tall buildings, the crucial role of builders at the residential housing level has been largely overlooked. Builders are typically the ones responsible for carrying out work in residential settings, such as renovations or maintenance. However, opportunities to promote and encourage seismic retrofitting during these works are generally missed. Using semi-structured interviews with builders and engineers, this study explores current industry trends, builders' needs and priorities, their perceptions of seismic strengthening, and their views on existing educational pathways. Findings suggest that although builders hold an influential position in the communication and implementation of seismic resilience measures, they are often excluded from discussions about preparedness and from the design of their own training opportunities. Homeowners' resistance and perceived liability risks discourage them from initiating conversations about seismic upgrades. Among other findings, this study highlights that meaningful engagement with builders is essential for improving the seismic resilience of Aotearoa New Zealand's residential housing stock.
• See, S., Opdyke, A., and Banki, S. (2026) “A Review of the Climate Change-Disaster-Conflict Nexus and Humanitarian Framing of Complex Displacement Contexts.” Climate and Development. 18 (3), 240-253. doi: 10.1080/17565529.2025.2514027Cite
  Abstract

  With climate change, disaster, and conflict impacts increasingly intertwining to drive population displacement, there is a pressing need to synthesise the confluence of what we know about this nexus. In this review, we synthesise evidence on how these displacement triggers interact. While climate change and disasters can lead to conflict, conversely, conflicts can exacerbate vulnerability and create disaster risk. Displacement outcomes are, therefore, rarely a result of individual triggers in isolation. Instead, they emerge from overlapping and nuanced dynamics. This review adopts the term “complex displacement” to refer to situations in which communities are forced to flee amid the complex interaction of climate change, disasters, and conflict. We examine how humanitarian organisations frame diverse displacement contexts. Our review reveals two dichotomies: one between climate-related and conflict-related triggers and another between displacement drivers and triggers. This separation has resulted in the development of separate terminology, language, training, and institutions for responding to displacement, which risks overlooking the interconnected vulnerabilities of displaced communities. By identifying areas where humanitarian framing might fall short in grasping the complexities within displacement contexts, we offer contributions to ongoing dialogue and advocate for more holistic approaches towards responding to complex displacement crises.
• Opdyke, A., Tuit, M., See, J., Cuaton, G., and Peja, P.J. (2026) “Do Nature-Based Solutions Deliver Climate Adaptation Equally? Comparing Mangroves and Seawalls in the Global South.” Climatic Change. 137, 63. doi: 10.1007/s10584-026-04151-2Cite
  Abstract

  Coastal communities in the Global South face growing risks from climate change. While grey infrastructure remains dominant in climate change adaptation approaches, its limitations have driven interest in nature-based solutions. This study compares the impacts of a mangrove restoration and a tide embankment project on social, physical, human, natural, and financial capitals in Tacloban City in the Philippines using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework. Through a mixed-methods approach, we combined household surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions to evaluate how these two infrastructure types differ in delivering climate adaptation outcomes. Results showed that differences emerged primarily in physical capital, where the seawall was associated with higher perceived infrastructure protection, durability, and housing safety. In contrast, qualitative data revealed that mangroves contributed more to natural capital, supporting biodiversity and ecosystems. Impacts on social and financial capital were similar across projects. While both projects enhanced human capital through improved perceived safety, seawall communities had higher rates of displacement but also expressed greater pride in the final infrastructure as a symbol of identity. Findings reveal that while seawalls are perceived to offer greater durability, they are associated with significantly higher rates of community displacement and estimated construction costs that are several hundred times higher than mangrove restoration per meter of coastline. These results suggest that nature-based solutions offer a more equitable and cost-effective pathway to resilience by delivering superior natural capital and community stewardship at a fraction of the investment required for grey infrastructure.
• Opdyke, A. (2026) “Sharpening the Pencil, Not Replacing the Hand: De-Stigmatising AI Use in Research Writing.” Learned Publishing. 39 (2), e2055. doi: 10.1002/leap.2055Cite
  Abstract

  Key Points Most researchers accept AI in writing, yet stigma around disclosure persists—revealing a gap between practice and transparency. Avoiding AI in research writing may itself be an ethical misstep when clarity of communication is a scholarly obligation. AI disclosure should be reframed from confession to scholarly norm, modelling accountability rather than signalling weakness. Not all AI use carries equal ethical weight—disclosure frameworks should distinguish surface editing from deeper co‐production. Responsible AI engagement, not blanket avoidance, best mitigates risks of hallucination, bias, and epistemic homogenisation.
• Opdyke, A., Babister, L., Hadlos, A., Parrack, C., and Flinn, B. (2026) “Navigating Relief to Recovery in Humanitarian Shelter and Settlements.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 137, 106098. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2026.106098Cite
  Abstract

  Moving from short-term relief to supporting recovery remains a persistent challenge for humanitarian shelter and settlements practitioners, particularly as crises become more protracted. This study examines how practitioners conceptualise recovery, the barriers they face, and the strategies used to navigate them. Drawing on cross-national interviews and literature, we find that recovery is understood as a dynamic and non-linear process situated between humanitarian response and development, framed through durable shelter solutions, cross-sectoral connections, and the restoration of dignity and livelihoods. Barriers span financial, environmental, social, and institutional domains, ranging from resource scarcity and land tenure disputes to organisational mandates and governance capacity. Practitioners address these challenges through three prominent strategies: adopting flexible shelter modalities, providing incremental assistance, and using constructive ambiguity to negotiate constraints. These findings conceptualise recovery as an evolving process rather than an endpoint, while offering practical insights to strengthen the humanitarian–development nexus in shelter and settlements. • Growing humanitarian needs demand stronger links from relief to recovery. • Recovery is durable shelter, cross-sectoral, and a dynamic, non-linear journey. • Practitioners adopt flexible shelter modalities to address contextual constraints. • Incremental assistance enables households to progress recovery over time. • Constructive ambiguity helps negotiate political and institutional barriers.
• Nabong, E., Opdyke, A., and Walters, J. (2026) “Understanding Drivers and Trends of Habitability in Kiribati from a Systems Perspective.” Environmental Science & Technology. 60 (5), 4058–4071. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.5c10548Cite
  Abstract

  Pacific atolls face heightened climate risk due to low elevations and limited resources. The question of (unin)­habitability in these locations is often simplified to characteristics of hazard exposure, reinforcing assumptions of inevitable mass migration. Here we use a multidimensional conceptualization of habitability, built from local knowledge, to simulate habitability trends in the Pacific Island nation of Kiribati over the coming century. Our use of system dynamics modeling offers a new approach to operationalizing habitability, allowing for the incorporation of a range of interdependent factors such as natural resource availability, livelihood opportunity, and population dynamics, among others. We find that water insecurity will be a driving factor in habitability loss, intensifying under extreme climate scenarios, while population pressures will further constrain resources. We show that regional disparities will lead to high internal migration rates, with movement to national urban centers preferred over movement abroad. Our work answers calls for a holistic and locally grounded understanding of habitability through a systems lens. By identifying how drivers of habitability change over time, we offer insights into targeted and timely climate adaptation.
• See, S., Opdyke, A., and Banki, S. (2026) “Navigating the Overlap of Climate-Induced and Conflict-Induced Displacement: Perspectives from Humanitarian Practitioners in the Philippines.” npj Climate Action. 5, 8. doi: 10.1038/s44168-025-00326-2Cite
  Abstract

  Disasters, conflict, and climate change increasingly intersect, forcing communities to flee and trapping them in cycles of displacement. Yet, humanitarian responses remain fragmented, often addressing displacement crises in isolation. This study explores how humanitarian practitioners in the Philippines navigate the overlap of climate-induced and conflict-induced displacement – what we term “complex displacement”. Drawing on 32 semi-structured interviews with humanitarian practitioners, we examine how displacement is classified and the factors that shape organisational decisions to respond. We identify that humanitarians rely on trigger-based, temporal, spatial, and precedent-based classifications of displacement. We also uncover four major factors influencing responses (or the lack thereof) – government requests, operational presence, security, and logistics. Our findings reveal structural blind spots that hinder effective response to complex displacement, and we call for a rethinking of humanitarian systems to address overlapping drivers of displacement. Grounded in the Philippines, these insights offer broader relevance for countries grappling with converging climate-induced and conflict-induced risks.
• Alac, R., Hammad, A., Hadigheh, A., Opdyke, A. (2025) “A Multi-criteria Approach to Egress Location Selection in Buildings: Integrating Economic, Technical, and Social Factors.” Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management. 32 (12), 8304–8325. doi: 10.1108/ECAM-05-2024-0684Cite
  Abstract

  Purpose This paper aims to introduce an innovative decision-making framework designed to optimize egress location selection in buildings, significantly enhancing safety during emergencies. By integrating social, economic and technical criteria through the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP), this framework effectively manages the uncertainties inherent in emergency scenarios, providing a robust tool for safeguarding lives and property. Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology employs the F-AHP to systematically integrate and evaluate social, economic and technical criteria for egress location selection. A comprehensive case study conducted on a one-story school building demonstrates this approach’s practical application and effectiveness. Findings The analysis reveals that economic criteria are the most significant in determining the optimal egress location, constituting 61.9% of the overall weight, followed by technical criteria at 26.8% and social criteria at 11.3%. The findings highlight the practical application and effectiveness of the proposed approach in addressing uncertainties and optimizing egress location selection. Integrating social, economic and technical considerations gives decision-makers a robust tool to optimize safety, cost-effectiveness and evacuation efficiency. Practical implications The findings underscore the practical benefits and effectiveness of the proposed approach in managing uncertainties and improving the selection of optimal egress locations. Integrating social, economic and technical considerations gives decision-makers a robust tool to optimize safety, cost-effectiveness and evacuation efficiency. This approach equips practitioners with a comprehensive framework for enhancing emergency preparedness and resilience in various building scenarios. Originality/value This research introduces a novel framework for egress location selection that addresses the limitations of existing studies by integrating multiple criteria – social, economic and technical – into a cohesive decision-making process. Using the F-AHP in a case study illustrates the framework’s practicality and adaptability, providing a dynamic solution that enhances the overall effectiveness of emergency plans. By prioritizing safety, cost-effectiveness and efficiency, this framework ensures that emergency plans are robust and adaptable, thereby significantly enhancing resilience in the face of emergencies.
• Hocking, L, Opdyke, A., Siguan, A., and Aldrich, D. (2025) “Linking Social Infrastructure and Social Capital: Barangay Halls and Basketball Courts as Cornerstones of Community Resilience.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 130, 105868. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105868Cite
  Abstract

  Social infrastructure – spaces where social relationships are formed and maintained – plays a vital role in shaping disaster resilience. This study examines how different types of social infrastructure influence the creation and mobilisation of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital in disaster contexts. Drawing on fieldwork observations and 47 interviews with community members and government authorities across eight barangays in Tacloban City in the Philippines, we identify six core functions of social infrastructure: activity, neutrality, co-creation, organising, institutionalisation, and information. These functions underpin mechanisms through which social capital is built and subsequently activated for disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Results show that barangay halls and other community spaces serve as key institutional and informational hubs, enabling communication, coordination, and access to support, especially in low-resource settings. This research offers a conceptual framework for understanding social infrastructure's role in resilience and highlights practical opportunities for targeted investment in inclusive, multi-functional spaces to strengthen community disaster capacity. • Presents a framework linking social infrastructure to disaster resilience • Identifies six core functions of social infrastructure shaping social capital • Links social infrastructure functions to mechanisms of social capital mobilisation • Shows how bonding, bridging, and linking capital are used in the Philippines • Provides guidance for targeted investment in community infrastructure
• See, J., Cuaton, G., Webber, S., Opdyke, A., and Peja, P.J. (2025) “Building Resilience or Reinforcing Vulnerability? The Enduring Allure of Hard Infrastructure as Adaptation.” Environment and Planning E: Nature and Space. 8(5), 1789-1811. doi: 10.1177/25148486251363740Cite
  Abstract

  This paper examines a climate buffer infrastructural paradox: that, despite an expansive archive documenting the limits of hard structural solutions, they retain their allure as a popular technical solution to protect against climatic hazards. The Leyte Tide Embankment Project (LTEP) in the Philippines, also known as “The Great Wall of Leyte”, is one of dozens of climate buffer megaprojects proliferating globally that promise to protect coastal zones from increasingly devastating climate hazards. Using the LTEP as a case study, we ask: what and who drives and sustains hard infrastructure as climate adaptation, and through what processes? To analyse this question, we conducted 45 in-depth interviews with project proponents, government officials, academics, practitioners and community members, as well as reviewed relevant documents to unravel the relations of power and politics that position the project as an effective and popular adaptation strategy. Through the lenses of urban political ecology and infrastructure studies, we argue that the LTEP derives its allure from the infrastructural politics of (in)visibility: the strategic deployment of hard infrastructures as visual tools to advance political agendas. These politics selectively highlight elements that symbolise protection and progress while obscuring aspects that fail to meet technical and aesthetic standards. The infrastructural politics of (in)visibility are shaped by multi-scalar power dynamics linking global and local interests that are propelled by a constellation of actors with diverse agendas and become active sites of negotiation and contestation where communities can organise and voice dissent.
• Hadlos, A., Opdyke, A., and Hadigheh, A. (2025) “Optimising Building Typology Distributions in Housing Stocks Reduces Multi-Hazard Losses in Resource-Constrained Communities.” Communications Engineering. 4, 175. doi: 10.1038/s44172-025-00507-1 (Editors’ Choice 2025)Cite
  Abstract

  Disaster loss estimations are valuable risk reduction tools but rarely consider the loss trade-offs when a building stock is subjected to multi-hazard impacts. Here, we developed an approach to simulate direct economic losses of a housing stock and explore loss reduction across scenarios of housing typology distributions. We used multi-objective optimisation to model wind and seismic losses in Itbayat, Batanes, Philippines. Using Monte Carlo simulation, 11,628 housing stock scenarios were modelled under two cases of paired extreme hazard intensity thresholds, identifying Pareto optimal solutions that were further analysed against a socio-technical framework. We show that the current housing stock distribution can sustain lower multi-hazard losses by achieving more optimal combinations of lightweight and reinforced concrete typologies. However, transitioning to this desired stock distribution becomes a trade-off of not just wind-seismic loss reductions but also of socio-technical considerations such as households’ risk perceptions. Our study advances risk reduction strategies by streamlining loss estimations to inform collective and safer multi-hazard construction practices.
• Opdyke, A., Meilianda, E., Alfian, D., Santiago, J., Mendoza, J.E., Delmendo, P.A., Besarra, I., & Lagmay, A.M.F.A. (2025). “Comparing flood risk drivers and adaptation responses in Indonesia and the Philippines.” APN Science Bulletin. 15(1), 42–50. doi: 10.30852/sb.2025.2885Cite
  Abstract

  The drivers of flood risk are increasingly complex, intertwined and local. International comparative analysis of these local socioenvironmental systems has the potential to strengthen governance mechanisms of flood risk. This research presents two case studies from Indonesia and the Philippines, showing distinct patterns of flood risk shifts. We show how what appear to be disparate culprits of worsening flooding stem from persistent livelihood vulnerabilities and exposure encroachment into flood-prone areas. Using hydrological modelling, surveys, interviews, focus groups and serious games, we describe emerging flood challenges in the case sites and identify how local governments respond. We argue that conceptualising hazards, vulnerability and exposure as independent in flood risk assessments is no longer sufficient. Our results identify escalating drivers of flooding and advocate for more holistic disaster risk reduction measures.
• De Pasquale, P. and Opdyke, A. (2025) “Pathways to Humanitarian Shelter Durable Solutions: A Global Comparative Analysis of Projects.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 128, 105723. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105723Cite
  Abstract

  Annual increases in global displacements due to conflict and natural hazards have intensified the need for durable humanitarian shelter solutions. Despite growing conceptual clarity over the ‘durable solution’ concept, a distinct lack of research exists to ascertain the combinations of conditions that lead to these outcomes. This research investigates the conditions supporting shelter durable solutions across 229 global case studies, employing fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA). Three pathways emerged from the analysis centred around the following mechanisms: co-produced systems – emphasising joint agency and community-driven efforts for long-term recovery in diverse contexts; community-led incremental building – enabling durable solutions in conflict settings through local skills and incremental stabilisation; and recovery alliances, emphasising smaller, well-coordinated responses in natural hazard contexts to facilitate targeted, sustainable solutions. This study provides practical guidance for implementing agencies through these approaches, exhibiting how coordinated, locally driven, and financially adaptable efforts can successfully facilitate durable solutions.
• Besarra, I., Opdyke, A., Mendoza, J.E., Delmendo, P.A., Santiago, J., Evangelista, D.J., Lagmay, A.M.F.A. (2025) “The Cost of Flooding on Housing Under Climate Change in the Philippines: Examining Projected Damage at the Local Scale.” Journal of Environmental Management. 380, 124966. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.124966Cite
  Abstract

  While the Philippines has made significant strides in proactive disaster risk reduction measures, current planning actions are undertaken primarily based on historical flood risk. There are gaps in understanding how the escalating impacts of climate change will alter flood dynamics. This study examines shifting local flood risk patterns in the Municipality of Carigara in Leyte. We quantify probabilistic flood damage on residential structures for early, mid-, and late-term flood scenarios under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways. By utilising localised housing vulnerability functions, we assess risk trends at a household level, considering concrete, light material, and elevated light material housing typologies. Our results indicate a 3 % decrease in future flood damages to residential structures under RCP 4.5 and a 34 % decrease in damages under RCP 8.5 by 2100 attributable to climate change for 100-year flood events. These shifts highlight the nuances of regional changes in flood damages over the next century. The findings provide insights into how localised climate-risk assessments for municipalities might be established as entry points to inform climate change policies and projects. Through established mechanisms such as Local Disaster Risk Reduction Management Funds (LDRRMF) in the Philippines, we propose methods of climate-informed decision-making for local government units to minimise damage for future climate scenarios.
• Besarra, I., Opdyke, A., Aquino, D.H., Santiago, J., and Mendoza, J.E., Lagmay, A.M.F.A. (2025) “Residential Building Flood Fragility and Vulnerability Curves for the Province of Leyte, Philippines.” Journal of Flood Risk Management. 18(1), e13043. doi: 10.1111/jfr3.13043Cite
  Abstract

  The Philippines experiences frequent flooding, but, despite expansive tools for risk reduction, there remain gaps in understanding generalised relationships between flood events and damage to residential structures for regions outside the nation's capital. This gap has limited the ability to model flood risk and damage without robust functions to link hazards and housing vulnerability. This research draws on 394 household surveys to empirically derive a suite of flood fragility and vulnerability functions for residential structures in the Province of Leyte for light material, elevated light material and masonry structures. The results showed that masonry construction was more resilient to floods compared to light material counterparts. Elevated light material structures also exhibited lower damages at low inundations but tend to fail abruptly at flood depths greater than 3 m. By empirically deriving flood damage functions, the findings contribute to a more localised approach to quantifying housing vulnerability and risk that can be used for catastrophe and risk modelling, with applications for government agencies, the insurance industry and disaster risk researchers. This research lays the foundation for future flood risk mapping with growing significance under climate change.
• Lin, S. and Opdyke, A. (2024) “University Student Flood Risk Perceptions and Flood Probability Knowledge in Greater Sydney.” Natural Hazards. 120(15), 13851-13873. doi: 10.1007/s11069-024-06757-0Cite
  Abstract

  While flood risk perception has been studied extensively in general populations, there remains a dearth of focus on youth perspectives – a key demographic to mobilising knowledge to achieve disaster risk reduction targets. This study aimed to evaluate university students’ perceptions of flood risk and their understanding of common flood probabilities in the Greater Sydney region of Australia. We surveyed 262 university students to better understand how flood preparedness, knowledge, and experience predict flood risk perceptions. Using ordinal logistic regression, we identified that students with past flood experience and women were more likely to have higher flood risk perceptions. In contrast, students with higher flood preparedness were more likely to have lower flood risk perceptions. Age, degree level (e.g. bachelor’s, master’s), place of residence, and flood knowledge were inconclusive predictors of risk perception. We also assessed differences in how students rated the likelihood of three equivalent flood probabilities presented in different ways: (1) a 1-in-100 year flood; (2) a flood with a 1% of happening in a given year; and (3) a flood with a 55% chance in an 80-year lifetime. Using Friedman and Kruskal-Wallis tests, we compared differences within student responses and across different risk perception groups. We found that students perceived equivalent flood probabilities stated over longer periods of time to be more likely to occur. This study contributes to understanding student perceptions of flood risk, presenting recommendations on how governments and higher educational institutions can improve building students’ knowledge of flood hazards.
• Nabong, E. and Opdyke, A. (2024) “Designing Serious Games to Advance Climate Change Adaptation.” Environmental Research Communications. 6, 091501. doi: 10.1088/2515-7620/ad6f7Cite
  Abstract

  The escalating impact of climate change necessitates innovative strategies to enhance public understanding and action. This research delves into the potential of serious games as transformative tools for climate change education and adaptation. Despite their rising popularity, serious games face challenges in effectively conveying complex climate science concepts and achieving desired learning outcomes. This study builds upon existing frameworks to propose tailored guidelines for designing serious games focused on climate change adaptation. We anchor our guidelines on the Design, Play, Experience (DPE) framework to scaffold strategies to create more effective serious games for climate change adaptation. We propose 11 elements that should be considered between player engagement and design when creating serious games. Through iterative playtesting and community involvement, we underscore the significance of reflecting on language, comprehension, timing, and social dynamics. This work bridges the gap between scientific knowledge and actionable insights in the development of serious games to equip decision-makers and communities with the tools to combat the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change.
• Muir, G. and Opdyke, A. (2024) “Deconstructing Disaster Risk Creation Discourses.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 111, 104682. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104682Cite
  Abstract

  Processes of disaster risk creation are outpacing the achievements of disaster risk reduction initiatives. Preventing risk creation is consequently an objective recognised by major disaster frameworks. However, there exists a gap in our understanding of the processes contributing to risk creation, with the existing body of knowledge lacking conceptual clarification to guide empirical applications. This review distils how disaster scholarship either implicitly or explicitly theorises the concept of disaster risk creation by employing a semi-systematic scoping strategy and thematic analysis of global literature. Disaster risk creation is inferred to be the process, or set of processes, through which risk is constructed (by human actors) in relation to (socio-)natural hazards. Using scholarly enquiries into risk creation this review discusses why risk-creating decisions emerge and prevail, how risk reduction narratives obscure risk creation outcomes, how risk reduction initiatives can be counterproductive in their intents, and the extents of tangibility in risk-creating factors. To avoid disaster risk creation and question the continued establishment of risk-creating path dependencies, we identify a need for future research to look both at ongoing and changeable, as well as more distal, trajectory-setting processes. The outcomes of this review have the potential to enrich and advance the application of disaster risk creation within the field of disaster studies, inspiring the further interrogation and eventual deconstruction of disaster risk creation processes.
• Latham, Z., Barrett-Lennard, G., and Opdyke, A. (2024) “Archetypes of Local Governance for Flood Risk Reduction Decision-Making Under Uncertain Climate Change Futures.” Sustainable Cities and Society. 112, 105632. doi: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105632Cite
  Abstract

  Urban coastal communities are among the most vulnerable to flood hazards, with these threats set to increase under climate change. Knowledge of how uncertainty shapes passive or proactive local decision-making processes of climate adaptation remains sparse – with significant potential to inform resilient and sustainable futures. To understand these decision dynamics, we developed a serious game to simulate the local governance roles, resources, and assets involved in managing flood risk under uncertain climate scenarios. Using data on the actions of game workshops conducted in the Philippines, we identify three distinct archetypes of collective adaptation decision-making: (1) Hierarchical Alliances; (2) Passive Enthusiasts and (3) Deliberative Strategists. We then examine how these archetypes respond to situational, temporal, choice, and outcome uncertainties present in climate change scenarios, uncovering six strategies used to act, reduce, supress, and forestall uncertainties: (a) resource sharing; (b) coordination; (c) early action; (d) mobilising values; (e) transferring accountability; and (f) risk balancing. Our results show how different archetypes perform in adaptation decisions, offering new guidance on how to structure local governance mechanisms in flood planning under climate change impacts.
• Hadlos, A., Opdyke, A., Hadigheh, A., and Gato, C. (2024) “Pathways of Multi-Hazard Post-Disaster Housing Reconstruction among Ivatan Indigenous Households.” Journal of Building Engineering. 91, 109636. doi: 10.1016/j.jobe.2024.109636Cite
  Abstract

  Most disaster-affected populations face the complex task of reconstructing their dwellings with minimal or no external support. However, not much is known about the self-initiated reconstruction pathways of households, especially among Indigenous groups needing to address the competing impacts of multiple hazards. We conducted a case study analysis based in Itbayat, Batanes in the Philippines to understand the housing reconstruction trajectories of the Ivatan Indigenous households after the 2019 earthquakes that redefined their typhoon-resilient construction practices. Using interviews and focus group discussions, factors affecting the reconstruction process were elicited. Then, using concept maps, we explored the linkages of these factors leading to the adoption of the emergent housing outputs. We found that the emergence of new housing typologies that displaced the vernacular architecture was influenced by the compounded urgency to reconstruct houses, perceptions of housing safety influenced by the seismic events, the nature of aid provided alongside households’ financial capacity, and the regulatory barriers affecting traditional resource extraction. To achieve structural housing safety, this study demonstrates the need for policies that enable and guide reconstruction in emergency contexts, as well as systems to channel aid to provide equitable opportunities to build back safer. Additionally, the role of local governance is shown to leverage the use of existing indigenous construction practices salient for rebuilding. This study builds upon the heightened imperatives in the disaster risk reduction practice and policy environments to focus on the multi-hazard realities affecting communities and the use of local and indigenous knowledge to reduce disaster impacts.
• Opdyke, A., Bodo, D.D., and Smyth, J. (2024) “Higher Ground or into Harm’s Way? Household Storm Surge Sheltering and Evacuation Plans.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 106, 104452. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104452Cite
  Abstract

  Storm surge poses a significant threat to property, livelihoods, and life for coastal populations. The Philippines is expected to see the highest rise in storm surge exposure of any country over the next century under climate change, requiring robust knowledge of how current risk and evacuation intentions for households intersect. Drawing on a survey of 12,150 households in the Municipality of Carigara, we compare building-level storm surge risk between the primary place of residence and intended evacuation locations. Our results compare how risk differs for households that plan to evacuate to public centres, residences of family and friends, and those who intend to shelter-in-place. We found that 28% of households planned to evacuate to private residences, 12% planned to evacuate to public evacuation shelters, 48% planned to shelter-in-place, and 11% who recognised a need to evacuate but were unsure where they would go. While we find a positive association between storm surge risk and plans to evacuation, under the highest storm surge advisory (SSA4), we find that 30% of evacuations to private residences and 61% of evacuations to public centres are to locations at higher risk than an evacuee's primary place of residence. Our study problematises the assumption that evacuation will lead to higher safety, contributing new knowledge of intended evacuation plans under storm surge advisories in the Philippines and highlighting a need for continued public awareness of not only hazard zones, but also the vulnerability of evacuation structures.
• Reza, N., Opdyke, A., and Ochai, C. (2024) “Disrupted Sense of Place and Infrastructure Reconstruction after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami.” Progress in Disaster Science. 22, 100322. doi: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100322Cite
  Abstract

  Recovery after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami remains contested with often conflicting infrastructure rebuilding and social processes that have unfolded in reconstruction strategies. Previous research points to the need to understand the integration of social and infrastructure dimensions of recovery to inform better planning processes. While place-based approaches have long been central to understanding disasters, there is comparatively less knowledge about the processes of how sense of place is established, or lost, in recovery after being disrupted following a disaster. Using the case of Kesennuma in the prefecture of Miyagi, we examined how these socio-technical processes unfolded. We draw on case study methods, including interviews and focus groups with residents and leaders of jichikai – neighbourhood associations of relocated communities – to understand how infrastructure reconstruction impacted sense of place. We found that infrastructure was a foundation for people's connections that construct sense of place across three scales – the individual, community, and city. To rebuilt sense of place, physical infrastructure needed to consider people's routine, community ties, and city identity after a disaster and it was the role of infrastructure across these scales that determined how disrupted sense of place could be re-established or continue to be disrupted through reconstruction. This work ultimately contributes to understanding how infrastructure can enable recovery and reduce disaster risk by creating more vibrant places within communities.
• Opdyke, A. and Fatima, K. (2024) “Comparing the Suitability of Global Gridded Population Datasets for Local Landslide Risk Assessments.” Natural Hazards. 120(3), 2415–2432. doi: 10.1007/s11069-023-06283-5Cite
  Abstract

  Landslide risk assessments are increasingly crucial for meeting global disaster risk reduction strategies and mobilising knowledge for local governments to protect communities and infrastructure. These assessments are data intensive, requiring large amounts of spatial demographic and natural hazard information. There are a growing number of high-resolution gridded population datasets that have global coverage with significant potential to transform disaster risk modelling, however landslide research has not yet compared the suitability of these gridded datasets for local risk assessments. Combining social vulnerability indicators with high-resolution settlement layer (HRSL) and WorldPop gridded population datasets, as well as a local household survey, we layer landslide susceptibility maps to compare three landslide risk estimates, examining the case of the Municipality of Carigara located in the central Philippines. Using statistical t tests, we compare aggregated community landslide risk for 49 communities. Findings revealed that HRSL data resulted in similar landslide risk at community scales when compared to local surveys, however WorldPop data greatly overestimated risk. Our findings point to a high level of accuracy of HRSL when used as an exposure dataset for local landslide risk studies and recommend avoiding WorldPop for such purposes. This research advances understanding of the suitability of open population datasets for use in landslide risk assessments in resource-constrained communities.
• Opdyke, A. (2024) “Guest Editorial.” Journal of Humanitarian Engineering. 9(1). doi: 10.36479/jhe.v9i1.216Cite
• Skwarko, T., He, I., Cross, S., Opdyke, A., Handayani, T., Kendall, J., Hapsoro, A., and McDonald, G., and Idris, Y. (2024) “The Long-Term Impact of Humanitarian Housing Interventions following the 2010 Merapi Eruption.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 100, 104076. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104076Cite
  Abstract

  There is strong evidence of the short-term impact of humanitarian interventions after disasters, however, relatively less is known about what, if any, impact this support has on long-term recovery outcomes in communities. This research examined long-term housing outcomes following assistance provided after the 2010 Merapi eruption in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. We surveyed 316 households who received and did not receive housing assistance following damaging lahar flows in the community of Jogoyudan to assess housing quality through a multi-dimensional measure. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression was used to evaluate the relationship of humanitarian assistance on housing quality outcomes, controlling for respondent and household demographics as well as the impacts of the disaster. Findings indicate that post-disaster housing assistance was positively correlated with higher long-term housing quality. Land tenure was found to be the strongest predictor of housing quality, explaining nearly a fifth of differences in housing quality. Livelihoods and construction abilities were also found to be significant predictors of long-term housing quality. Our results demonstrate the value of post-disaster housing programs in raising the living standard of recovering communities and the institutional, economic, and knowledge systems that support housing markets.
• Taylor, J., Poleacovschi, C., Opdyke, A., and Cetin, K. (2024) “Leveraging Inter-Organizational Coordination Networks for Housing Climate Change Adaptation across Rural Alaska.” Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure. 9(1), 16-31. doi: 10.1080/23789689.2023.2232580Cite
  Abstract

  Climate change impacts on housing are an essential concern for Alaska Native communities. Adaptation literature has largely ignored the role of inter-organizational coordination networks in supporting housing adaptation. To address this gap, we surveyed 26 organizations and 36 participants from organizations working regionally in rural Alaska on housing service, construction, and engineering projects. We employ social network analysis (SNA), including Logistic Regression Quadratic Assignment Procedure (LRQAP), to explore the influence of network centrality on an organization’s ability to enact housing adaptation. Results indicate that when two organizations have similarities in their network centrality, or how connected an organization was in the network, the less likely they are to have similar, positive views in their ability to enact housing adaptation. With a limited capacity to prepare for climate change impacts and integrate adaptation into existing programs, it is important for organizations and governments to mobilize the entirety of inter-organizational coordination networks.
• Hadlos, A., Opdyke, A., and Hadigheh, A. (2023) “Deriving Expert-Driven Seismic and Wind Fragility Functions for Non-Engineered Residential Typologies in Batanes, Philippines.” Scientific Reports. 13, 22008. doi:10.1038/s41598-023-49398-2Cite
  Abstract

  Natural hazards inflict significant damage to dwellings in the Philippines where housing is often the most valued asset of households. Residential fragility functions estimate structural damage to mitigate risk but these are challenging to derive when empirical and analytical data are lacking, as is common in rural areas. Too often, conventional fragility estimates overlook the characteristics of informally built or non-engineered dwellings common in rural areas. We used a heuristic alternative of deriving fragility functions relying on experts’ judgements to understand the housing performance of non-engineered residential typologies in the Province of Batanes in the Philippines. Drawing on field surveys in the Municipality of Itbayat, we identified and defined seven prominent typologies. Based on the Applied Technology Council’s expert-driven method of deriving fragility functions, 18 experts estimated the damage states of these typologies against the impacts of earthquakes and typhoons which are the two most prominent hazards in the region. Our findings provide first-generation fragility functions for Batanes as a step towards more localised risk assessment in the Philippines. More broadly, these functions can be used for typologies identified beyond Batanes where similar structural characteristics are prevalent.
• Alac, R., Hammad, A.M.A., Hadigheh, A., Opdyke, A. (2023) “Optimising Egress Location in School Buildings Using Mathematical Modelling and Agent-Based Simulation.” Safety Science. 167, 106265. doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2023.106265Cite
  Abstract

  Effective evacuation strategies in school buildings are critical for ensuring the safety of students and staff during emergencies. Finding appropriate egress locations is an important part of the evacuation planning process. Existing approaches for evacuating schools are based on codified standards without requiring the use of optimisation or simulation, resulting in non-optimal solutions. This study develops a framework that combines mathematical modelling, Building Information Modelling (BIM), and agent-based modelling (ABM) to aid decision makers in planning egress locations for safe evacuation in school buildings. A mixed-integer programming model is used to find optimal egress locations that meet design criteria, which is then integrated with BIM and ABM to provide a comprehensive tool for planning effective egress locations. The simulation approach also evaluates the performance of the proposed egress locations in real-life scenarios. Given the scarcity of research on combining egress location and performance in school buildings, this framework offers a useful approach to improve evacuation planning in school buildings. The results indicate that the proposed approach can improve evacuation time by approximately 10% and reduce total egress configuration costs by 31%.
• Nabong, E., Hocking, L., Opdyke, A., and Walters, J. (2023) “Decision-Making Factor Interactions Influencing Climate Migration: A Systems-Based Systematic Review” WIREs Climate Change. 14(4), e828. doi: 10.1002/wcc.828Cite
  Abstract

  Global migration and mobility dynamics are expected to shift in the coming decades as a result of climate change. However, the extent to which migration is caused by climate hazards, in contrast or addition to other intervening factors, is a point of debate in literature. In this study, we conducted a systematic literature review to identify and consolidate factors which directly and indirectly influence climate change migration. In our review of the literature, we found a total of 21 economic, environmental, demographic, political, social, and personal intervening decision-making factors which affect climate migration. Causal interactions between these factors were identified using an axial qualitative coding technique called purposive text analysis. By combining causal links, a semi-quantitative causal loop diagram was created that represented factor interaction and feedback within the “climate migration system.” Using this model, we highlight influential feedback loops and point to how intervention strategies may cause downstream effects. This research helps to address calls for a better understanding of the complex decision-making dynamics in climate migration. In particular, results from our causal feedback loops show that intervention strategies targeted toward economic factors such as financial capital and livelihoods, as well as food security, would have the greatest impact in assisting climate-affected communities. These results help inform climate migration policy and aid planners in the future to better understand the interconnected system of factors that lead to the emergent outcome of climate migration. This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies The Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Climate Science and Decision Making
• Healey, S., Lloyd, S., Gray, J., and Opdyke, A. (2023) “Does Safer Housing Save Lives? An Analysis of Typhoon Mortality and Dwellings in the Philippines.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 84, 103433. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103433Cite
  Abstract

  Storms globally account for the highest loss of life among weather-related natural hazards. This study examines the relationship between components of housing vulnerability and typhoon related mortality in the Philippines at a municipal level between 2005 and 2015 using a Hurdle Negative Binomial (HNB) model. We find that in municipalities with greater prevalence of extreme substandard housing, unimproved household water sources, crowdedness, lower housing density, and less secure tenure, people are more likely to die from typhoons when controlling for typhoon proximity and wind speed as well as coastal proximity. We recommend targeted investments in safer housing in municipalities of Region VIII, Region XI and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) where correlations between housing vulnerability and disaster mortality are the highest. This research provides new knowledge of the link between housing and mortality in disasters, offering one of the first national scale assessments to quantify the contributions of safer housing in reducing loss of life in disasters.
• Nabong, E. and Opdyke, A. (2023) “Promoting Migration as Adaptation to Climate Change: Addressing Mobility Barriers.” Development in Practice. 33(1), 128-132. doi: 10.1080/09614524.2022.2043829Cite
  Abstract

  In the past decade, there has been growing pushback towards the idea of migration as a “failure to adapt” to climate change. Climate-related migration is increasingly viewed as an adaptation strategy rather than the consequence of failed in situ adaptation (McLeman and Smit 2006). As we move toward a more nuanced understanding of the interaction between climate change and migration, governments now need to work towards strategies to aid safe and supported mobility. In particular, we stress that the responsibility rests heavily with countries from the Global North who have contributed the most to carbon emissions, while the burden of adaptation has disproportionately fallen to low-emitting countries from the Global South. While we are gradually understanding the drivers that lead to migration, we know comparatively less about the factors that compel people to stay (Wiegel, Boas, and Warner 2019). Unpacking the puzzle of immobility factors is a vital but often neglected pathway to assisting climate-affected populations who are unable or unwilling to move. This viewpoint provides a commentary on top factors that keep climate-affected populations in place, detailing how they contribute to immobility as well as recommendations towards overcoming these barriers. Populations who are affected by climate change but lack the ability to migrate are often termed “trapped populations”; a concept first introduced in 2011 through the UK’s Foresight Report on Migration and Global Environmental Change (Foresight 2011). The inability to employ migration as an adaptation strategy stems from a lack of financial capital, resources, legal options, and political support as well as border restrictions and social barriers. Trapped populations are doubly disadvantaged in that they are vulnerable both socio-economically and geographically in areas prone to natural hazards (Ayeb-Karlsson, Smith, and Kniveton 2018; Black et al. 2011). In instances where there is both ambition and inability to migrate, government policies are needed to help facilitate movement. However, it is important to distinguish that not all who are immobile are necessarily trapped. Climate affected people may choose to be voluntarily immobile for reasons such as place attachment, family ties, assets, or previous in situ adaptation. It also follows that affected people can be unable to move and unwilling (Nawrotzki and DeWaard 2018). While mobility and immobility decisions should be supported in ways that increase agency for those affected by climate change, we need increased attention on populations who lack the resources to migrate when they otherwise would have chosen this avenue of climate adaptation.
• Nabong, E., Opdyke, A., and Walters, J. (2022) “Identifying Leverage Points in Climate Change Migration Systems through Expert Mental Models.” Climatic Change. 175(3-4), 12. doi: 10.1007/s10584-022-03468-yCite
  Abstract

  As the impacts of climate change increase, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change advises that global migration will also increase. A deeper understanding of the factors and interactions that influence the migration decision-making of climate-affected populations is needed to more accurately predict migration estimates and adequately inform and prepare future receiving cities. In this study, we survey thirty-two experts in the field of climate migration to explore how demographic, economic, environmental, political, and social factors interact to lead to climate (im)mobility and how these interactions change within sea level rise, drought, flooding, and erosion contexts. We use system mapping and network analysis to determine which factors should be targeted as leverage points for policy makers and their resulting effects within each hazard context. Our findings identify physical infrastructure, social services, social capital, and political stability as places to intervene to increase resiliency in drought, flooding, and erosion climate migration systems. Using hazard context and community consultation, we recommend selecting target factors with direct relationships to other highly influential factors (livelihoods, food security, and financial capital) to elicit the most positive cascading effects through the whole system, leading to changes in migration. We also highlight the sea level rise climate migration system as highly complex in comparison to the other contexts examined and the need for multi-factored interventions in this context to create more resilient migration systems. Our findings contribute to the growing body of work which seeks to better understand the interactions between factors influencing climate migration.
• Hadlos, A., Opdyke, A., and Hadigheh, A. (2022) “Where Does Local and Indigenous Knowledge in Disaster Risk Reduction Go from Here? A Systematic Literature Review.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 79, 103160. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103160Cite
  Abstract

  The embeddedness of local and indigenous communities in their environments has led them to develop time-tested knowledge and practices to prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the impacts of natural hazards. Collectively, these are referred to as local and indigenous knowledge (LIK) and have gained a niche in disaster risk reduction (DRR) scholarship. We conducted a systematic literature review, identifying 325 articles that were qualitatively coded to identify what practices constitute LIK, patterns in how it has been studied, and how current understanding of LIK fits to the Sendai Framework. We found a plethora of strategies that communities mobilise, from hazard forecasts to livelihood-based adaptation, with the study of these concentrated in middle- and high-income countries. Efforts to integrate knowledge (LIK and scientific) and power spheres (top-down and bottom-up) are increasingly prominent themes in disaster scholarship. There is a recognition of LIK in the Sendai Framework priority areas, although still embryonic, which we link to the existing body of knowledge in literature. Our synthesis pieces together a holistic understanding of LIK to offer a more concrete appreciation of what LIK is and how it can be further relevant for DRR efforts.
• Lloyd, S., Gray, J., Healey, S., and Opdyke, A. (2022) “Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in the Philippines.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 79, 103103. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103103Cite
  Abstract

  This research sought to measure social vulnerability at the municipal level across the Philippines. Indicators of social vulnerability were identified from literature and relevant census data was collected from the Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to identify underlying components of social vulnerability from this data, and these principal components, as well as an aggregated Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), were mapped at the municipal level. Negative Binomial (NB) regression analysis was then used to validate the SVI using typhoon mortality rates, with results indicating that a one standard deviation (SD) increase in social vulnerability is positively correlated with a 23.4% increase in observed typhoon-related fatalities. The development of a granular and validated SVI can guide researchers seeking to understand how localised vulnerability contributes to disaster risk in the Philippines and assist policymakers in prioritising local government units for disaster risk reduction interventions.
• Opdyke, A., Chiang, D., Tsang, A., and Smyth, J. (2022) “Benchmarking Household Storm Surge Risk Perceptions to Scientific Models in the Philippines.” Natural Hazards. 114(2), 1285-1305. doi: 10.1007/s11069-022-05425-5Cite
  Abstract

  Household perceptions of hazards play an important role in mobilizing efforts for disaster risk reduction. This research aimed to examine perceptions of storm surge in the Philippines through a case study of the Municipality of Carigara located in the province of Leyte. Surveys from 1,093 households were collected asking about perceived storm surge exposure. Building vulnerability indicators were combined with storm surge inundation models and household perceptions to compare differences in storm surge risk. More than half of households in modelled inundation zones either did not know their exposure or believed they were not exposed to 2-m surge heights and above. While there was alignment between modelled and perceived risk of low-level storm surge events, our results show a significant disconnect between household perceptions and probabilistic models for larger storm surge inundation events, pointing to continued gaps in storm surge knowledge in the Philippines.
• Gray, J., Lloyd, S., Healey, S., and Opdyke, A. (2022) “Urban and Rural Patterns of Typhoon Mortality in the Philippines” Progress in Disaster Science. 14, 100234. doi: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2022.100234Cite
  Abstract

  Storms continue to be the deadliest type of weather-related disasters globally. The Philippines is one of the most at risk countries to disasters, yet there continues to be gaps in understanding where and why people are killed in typhoons – the country's most prominent natural hazard. This research sought to understand how typhoon mortality varies across the Philippines at the municipal level, focusing on differences in rural and urban municipalities between 2005 and 2015. Generalised linear regression models (GLMs), including Poisson and negative binomial (NB), were used to analyse the relationship between typhoon mortality and level of urbanisation while controlling for social vulnerability and typhoon exposure. Findings indicate that typhoon mortality is disproportionality concentrated in emerging, rather than established, urban centres. Deaths from typhoons were significantly higher per capita in older age groups and amongst men, with drowning accounting for 71% of deaths, although there is uncertainty in these later trends which show the need for investment in national disaster databases. Our results make contributions to understanding of urban-rural patterns of disaster risk and the determinants of typhoon mortality in the Philippines.
• Hendriks, E. and Opdyke, A. (2022) “The Influence of Technical Assistance and Funding on Perceptions of Post-Disaster Housing Safety after the 2015 Gorkha Earthquakes in Nepal.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 73, 102906. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102906Cite
  Abstract

  Housing is vital in facilitating a return to normality following a disaster; however, it remains one of the most challenging and problematic areas of post-disaster assistance. There is a pressing need to unpack “Build Back Better” aspirations to understand the drivers of safe housing reconstruction. The objective of this research was to understand the influence of technical assistance and sources of funding on household perceptions of housing safety. Binomial logistic regression was used to analyse survey data collected from 711 households three and half years after the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal in two affected districts. We found that only 55% and 60% of households in the selected districts of Gorkha and Okhaldhunga, respectively, felt their home was safe in case of a large future earthquake. The use of demonstration houses in communities resulted in higher odds of safe perceptions, while door-to-door technical assistance was associated with lower perceptions of safety in Gorkha. In contrast, in Okhaldhunga, household reconstruction orientations and short training resulted in lower odds of safe perceptions. The funding source for housing reconstruction did not correlate with perceptions of safety in Gorkha, while government funding and household savings had positive correlations in Okhaldunga. Our findings suggest a possible link between reconstruction financing, technical assistance, and the perceptions household form out of recovery. Organisations seeking to support housing reconstruction can potentially leverage tailored technical assistance and funding sources as points of entry to influence household demand for safer construction.
• Healey, S., Llyod, S., Gray, J.****, and Opdyke, A. (2022) “A Census-Based Housing Vulnerability Index for Typhoon Hazards in the Philippines.” Progress in Disaster Science. 13, 100211. doi: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2021.100211Cite
  Abstract

  The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction recognises housing as an important element of vulnerability, however, there remains limited understanding of how sub-national housing vulnerability varies spatially. This research sought to develop a municipal-level housing vulnerability index for typhoon hazards, applied at a national scale in the Philippines. We first selected 25 housing vulnerability indicators from the 2015 Philippines census, which were reduced into seven underlying dimensions of typhoon-related housing vulnerability using principal component analysis: housing density, housing quality, crowdedness, tenure security, extreme substandard housing, drinking water source, and structural integrity. These components were then aggregated to create a relative housing vulnerability index. We applied spatial clustering analysis to test for patterns, finding increasing housing vulnerability from north to south, with nuance in municipalities that defy these national trends. Our results offer a more granular view of housing vulnerability which may assist in unpacking how localised housing conditions contribute to disaster risk and assist researchers and government agencies in targeting disaster interventions.
• Opdyke, A. and Wang, Z. (2021) “Prioritising Build Back Safer Messaging for Humanitarian Shelter.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 64, 102475. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102475Cite
  Abstract

  Humanitarian shelter assistance increasingly employs build back safer messages as a technical assistance tool to disaster-affected communities. We sought to prioritise the importance of key messages for small, light-weight timber shelter using a combination of Delphi and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods. A panel of twelve academic and practitioner experts were asked to rank build back safer messages developed in the Philippines after Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 which have formed the basis for subsequent humanitarian messages in the Asia-Pacific region. Findings revealed three groups of shelter key messages by importance: (1) bracing and joints, (2) foundations, tie-down, and roofing and (3) shape. However, there was low consensus among panellists in their judgements of these overall comparisons. The individual structural components used in guidance within each message were also ranked with high consensus among panellists. Our results were consistent with the original message ordering, but expert judgements revealed differing relative structural capacities between components. The resulting numerical weightings and rankings offer clearer guidance on the relative importance of different groups of build back safer messages for non-engineered shelter and housing in low- and middle-income countries. Results may help humanitarian agencies create more targeted messaging to support safer and more durable shelter.
• Hendriks, E. and Opdyke, A. (2021) “Adoption of Seismic Resistant Techniques in Reconstructed Housing in the Aftermath of Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha Earthquake.” Earthquake Spectra. 37(4), 2662-2686. doi: 10.1177/87552930211009530Cite
  Abstract

  Earthquake affected households too often insufficiently apply seismic construction knowledge during reconstruction. This study aims to assess to what degree safety guidelines have found their way to practice in Nepal. Differences are explored between communities in the Gorkha and Okhaldhunga districts, which received differing levels of technical assistance following the 2015 earthquakes. Seismic resistance of houses was assessed 3 years after the earthquakes. Findings from 955 houses in 25 communities show high degrees of adoption of earthquake-resistant construction knowledge in all selected communities. Variation in safer construction across communities differs only slightly for different intensities of humanitarian technical assistance. This finding points toward the need to more closely examine the communication methods employed and motivations of households to build back safer.
• Mastroianni, E., Lancaster, J., Korkmann, B., Opdyke, A., and Beitelmal, W. (2021) “Mitigating Infrastructure Disaster Losses Through Asset Management Practices in the Middle East and North Africa Region.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 53, 102011. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.102011Cite
  Abstract

  Despite expanding infrastructure investments in developing countries, maintenance of constructed infrastructure is not keeping pace and there is a growing need to focus on the long-term operational demands of new assets to reduce vulnerability. In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, natural hazards and civil conflicts continue to undermine development and disaster risk management. This research sought to examine how infrastructure asset management can reduce the impact of disasters in the MENA region. Twelve interviews were conducted with asset management and disaster risk reduction experts in the MENA region and Australia – the latter to identify transferable asset management best practices. Qualitative analysis of interviews identified regional lessons to advance asset management practice as a disaster risk reduction tool. The four main findings were: (1) asset management practice can be a proactive disaster policy; (2) there is need for appropriate levels asset management policy in the MENA region; (3) asset prioritisation improves the effectiveness of, and decision making in, risk management; and (4) whole of life consideration enables effective planning for asset management practices. In alignment with the priorities of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, this research provides knowledge to strengthen governance to manage disaster risk in the MENA region. The research further outlines the barriers and challenges that hinder successful asset management policy implementation, as well as proposes recommendations for disaster mitigation strategies using infrastructure asset management.
• Opdyke, A., Goldwyn, B., and Javernick-Will, A. (2021). “Defining a Humanitarian Shelter and Settlements Research Agenda. “International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 52, 101950. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101950Cite
  Abstract

  Despite the knowledge gained on post-disaster sheltering and housing over the last several decades, there remains a disconnect in the evidence needed by humanitarian practitioners and the learning that the research community is capturing. To determine the research needed by practitioners, we assembled a Delphi panel of experts in humanitarian shelter and settlements. They first identified and then ranked the relative importance of research topics. Ninety-six research needs were identified and ranked by importance in six key areas that included: (1) comparing and evaluating approaches to sheltering, (2) shelter and settlement programming, (3) design and construction of shelter, (4) understanding impacts and outcomes of shelter, (5) disaster risk reduction and the humanitarian-development nexus, and (6) challenging contexts and topics. Top research priorities identified include a need to better understand how to support shelter self-recovery, longitudinal and long-term impacts of shelter, and the transition from response to recovery. The resulting needs provide a research agenda for humanitarian organizations, academic institutions, and donors, aligning with the Global Shelter Cluster's strategy to invest in evidence-based response.
• Hendriks, E. and Opdyke, A. (2020) “Knowledge Adoption in Post-Disaster Housing Self-Recovery.” Disaster Prevention and Management. 29(6), 849-864. doi: 10.1108/DPM-01-2020-0025Cite
  Abstract

  Purpose The purpose of this study is to explore communication of hazard-resistant construction techniques after disaster in the absence of outside influence. It further aims to unpack the barriers and drivers in the adoption of knowledge processes to identify strategic recommendations to enlarge adoption of safer construction practices by local construction actors. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on an analysis of stakeholders’ perspectives during post-disaster reconstruction in the Philippines in the province of Busuanga after Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. Data were collected from six communities that received no external housing assistance, analyzing surveys from 220 households, 13 carpenters, 20 key actors coordinating reconstruction or recovery efforts, as well as 12 focus group discussions. Findings This research argues for a stronger role of governmental agencies, vocational training schools and engineers. Current communication of typhoon-resistant construction knowledge is ineffective to stimulate awareness, understanding and adoption by local construction actors and self-recovering households. Research limitations/implications The analysis in this study focuses on a small sample of communities in the west of the Philippines that are not frequently affected by typhoons. Originality/value This is one of the few scholarly works in the Philippines focused on adoption of safer construction practices by community-based construction actors when technical housing assistance is absent.
• See, L.S., Calo, L., Bannon, B., and Opdyke, A. (2020) “An Open Data Approach to Mapping Urban Drainage Infrastructure in Developing Communities.” Water. 12(7), 1880. doi: 10.3390/w12071880Cite
  Abstract

  Urban flooding in developing countries represents a growing threat to sustainable development efforts, yet the tools needed to study these infrastructure systems in data-scarce environments are woefully inadequate. This study seeks to propose a standardized approach and methods for mapping urban drainage systems in developing communities. The research draws on a case study from the Philippines, which sought to conduct rapid elevation surveys and drainage assessments employing open source geographical information system (GIS) tools. We develop a standardized procedure for digitizing drainage systems using OpenStreetMap and Field Papers, as well as discuss applications of this data for drainage design. The results contribute to a methodological framework that can be replicated in other similar developing communities where study of urban drainage is needed for sustainable development and disaster risk reduction efforts.
• Opdyke, A., Javernick-Will, A., and Koschmann, M. (2019) “Assessing the Impact of Household Participation on Satisfaction and Safe Design in Humanitarian Shelter Projects.” Disasters. 43(4), 926-953. doi: 10.1111/disa.12405Cite
  Abstract

  Participation has long been considered important for post‐disaster recovery. Establishing what constitutes participation in post‐disaster shelter projects, however, has remained elusive, and the links between different types of participation and shelter programme outcomes are not well understood. Furthermore, recent case studies suggest that misguided participation strategies may be to blame for failures. This study analysed 19 shelter projects implemented in the Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013 to identify the forms of participation employed. Using fuzzy‐set qualitative comparative analysis, it assessed how household participation in the planning, design, and construction phases of shelter reconstruction led to outcomes of household satisfaction and safe shelter design. Participation was operationalised via eight central project tasks, revealing that the involvement of households in the early planning stages of projects and in construction activities were important for satisfaction and design outcomes, whereas engagement during the design phase of projects had little impact on the selected outcomes.
• Opdyke, A., Javernick-Will, A., and Koschmann, M. (2018) “A Comparative Analysis of Coordination, Participation, and Training in Post-Disaster Shelter Projects.” Sustainability. 10(11), 4241. doi: 10.3390/su10114241Cite
  Abstract

  The delivery of post-disaster shelter assistance continues to be fraught with challenges derived from the coordination of resources, involvement of project stakeholders, and training of households and builders. There is a need to better understand what project elements in the delivery of post-disaster shelter projects most influence resilience and sustainability. To address this need, we examined nineteen post-disaster shelter projects in the Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan. We first characterized coordination, participation, and training employed across the planning, design, and construction phases of shelter projects and then used fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to assess the influence of these elements, alone and in combination, on building resilient and sustainable community infrastructure systems. Findings show that early involvement of households in planning efforts, combined with subsequent training, was important in evolving recovery outcomes. Our results point to the importance of: (1) supporting household sheltering processes over delivering hard products; (2) strategically linking project processes across phases; and (3) aligning humanitarian actions with long-term development. Conclusions from this study contribute to theory of sheltering in developing communities and more broadly to theory of recovery processes that link to community resilience and sustainability.
• Opdyke, A., Javernick-Will, A., and Koschmann, M. (2018) “Household Construction Knowledge Acquisition in Humanitarian Shelter Projects.” International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 28, 131-139. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.02.038Cite
  Abstract

  The incorporation of safer building practices into shelter after disasters continues to plague recovery efforts. While limited resources are one potential cause, evidence from case studies suggests that poor adoption of safer construction may stem from a knowledge deficit. Despite these shortcomings, previous research has done little to examine the current state of construction education and training in post-disaster shelter and housing, and there is lacking evidence to support how households acquire new knowledge of construction practice. Examining nineteen shelter projects in the Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan, training methods were categorized using Kolb's experiential learning theory poles. Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was then used to analyze the impact of these methods on community construction knowledge. Findings reveal that households acquired knowledge either through a combination of formal training methods that encompassed reflective observation, active experimentation, and concrete experiences or alternatively through observation of on-site construction activities.
• Opdyke, A., Lepropre, F., Javernick-Will, A., and Koschmann, M. (2017) “Inter-Organizational Resource Coordination in Post-Disaster Infrastructure Recovery.” Construction Management and Economics. 35(8-9), 514-530. doi: 10.1080/01446193.2016.1247973Cite
  Abstract

  Despite significant advances in strengthening post-disaster recovery efforts, misaligned strategy and inefficient resource allocation are far too often the norm for infrastructure reconstruction. To examine the inter-organizational networks that form to coordinate resources for infrastructure reconstruction, we employed social network analysis in 19 communities in the Philippines following Super Typhoon Haiyan, at 6 and 12 months post-disaster. To build these networks, we analysed interview, field observation and documentation data collected from non-governmental organizations, local governments and communities. A survey questionnaire was also administered to organizations working in selected communities to validate networks. Results from network analysis established that information was the most commonly shared resource by organizations, followed by financial, material and human resources. Government agencies had the highest actor centralities; however, qualitative data suggest that these roles were the result of obligatory consultations by international organizations and lacked legitimacy in practice. Findings further demonstrate that networks become more decentralized over time as actors leave and roles become more established, influenced by short-term expatriate contracts and the termination of United Nations supported cluster coordination. Findings could help organizations strengthen humanitarian response efforts by attending to resource allocation and knowledge sharing with other organizations.
• Koschmann, M., Kopczynski, J., Opdyke, A., and Javernick-Will, A. (2017) “Constructing Authority in Disaster Relief Coordination.” Electronic Journal of Communication. 29(1-2). (link)Cite
  Abstract

  The purpose of our study is to explore the social construction of authority in disaster relief coordination. We emphasize the ways in which stakeholders draw upon various discursive resources in order to establish or preserve their authority to act within a certain problem domain. We review literature on authority, coordination, communication, and collaborative work to provide a theoretical framework that informs our empirical examples. Next we present a case study of disaster relief coordination in the Philippines following Typhoon Yolanda (known internationally as Haiyan). Our case focuses on home reconstruction in the Cebu province of the Central Visayas region of the Philippines, one of the areas hardest hit by the storm where most of the homes were destroyed or severely damaged. This case demonstrates organizations do not have authority within this problem domain, but instead construct authority through practice and sensemaking in order to accomplish a variety of individual and collective goals; authority is in a constant state of negotiation as various organizations coordinate with each other (or not) to provide effective disaster relief. We conclude with a discussion about the contributions and implications of our research.
• Opdyke, A., Javernick-Will, A., and Koschmann, M. (2017) “Infrastructure Hazard Resilience Trends: An Analysis of 25 Years of Research.” Natural Hazards. 87(2), 773-789. doi: 10.1007/s11069-017-2792-8Cite
  Abstract

  Hazard research has made significant strides over the last several decades, answering critical questions surrounding vulnerability and recovery. Recently, resilience has come to the forefront of scholarly debates and practitioner strategies, yet there remain challenges implementing resilience in practice, the result of a complex web of research that spread across numerous fields of study. As a result, there is a need to analyze and reflect on the current state of resilience literature. We reviewed 241 journal articles from the Web of Science and Engineering Village databases from 1990 to 2015 to analyze research trends in geographic location of studies, methods employed, units of analysis, and resilience dimensions studied, as well as correlations between each of these categories. The majority of the studies analyzed were conducted in North America, used quantitative methods, focused on infrastructure and community units of analysis, and studied governance, infrastructure, and economic dimensions of resilience. This analysis points to the need to: (1) conduct studies in developing country contexts, where resilience is particularly important; (2) employ mixed-methods for additional depth to quantitative studies; (3) connect units of analysis, such as infrastructure and community; and (4) expand on the measurement and study of environmental and social dimensions of resilience.
• Zerio, A., Opdyke, A., and Javernick-Will, A. (2016) “Characterizing Post-Disaster Reconstruction Training Methods and Learning Styles.” Engineering Project Organization Journal. 6(2-4), 142-154. doi: 10.1080/21573727.2016.1257484Cite
  Abstract

  Large disasters damage or destroy infrastructure that is then reconstructed through programmes that train community members in construction techniques that reduce future risks. Despite the number of post-disaster reconstruction programmes implemented, there is a dearth of research on education and training in post-disaster contexts. To address this gap, we applied a mixed methods approach based upon experiential learning theory (ELT) to three shelter programmes administered in Eastern Samar, Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan. First, we characterize postdisaster training programmes based on learning modes and then, compared this to the learning styles of community members. To assess learning modes of training programmes, we analysed qualitative data from interview accounts of community members and aid organizations; and, to delineate community member's learning style preferences, we analysed quantitative data from survey questionnaires. Findings show that aid organizations administered training largely in lecture format, aligning with the reflective observation mode of ELT, but lacked diversity in formats represented in other poles of ELT. Moreover, analysis revealed that community members tended to grasp new information in accordance with the concrete experimentation mode, then preferred transforming newly acquired knowledge via the reflective observation mode. The lecture-based training predominately administered by aid organizations partially aligned with community learning preferences, but fell short in cultivating other forms of knowledge acquisition known to enhance long-term learning.

Reports

• Opdyke, A., Banki, S., See, S., and Naderpajouh, N. (2024). “Durable Housing Solutions are Central to Tackling Climate Displacement” in Climate-Induced Displacement: Understanding Risks and Supporting Local Action in Asia and the Pacific. 14-15. International Organization for Migration. (link)Cite
• Naderpajouh, N., Zolghadr, A., Habibi Moshfegh, P., Pakizeh, A. Schlosberg, D., Opdyke, A., Van Ogtrop, F., Howard, A., Matous, P., Bailie, J., Hadigheh, A., Crock, M., Zhang, H., Vervoort, W. (2024) “Community Risk Assessment: Connecting Technical Knowledge with Local and Indigenous Knowledge.” A report to Natural Hazard Research Australia by the Sydney Environment Institute (SEI). Report number: 34.2024. ISBN: 978-1-923057-14-2 (link)Cite
• Babister, L., Opdyke, A., Hadlos, A., Parrack, C., and Flinn, B. (2023) “Constructive Ambiguity: Supporting Recovery from Humanitarian Crises.” Shelter Projects 9th Edition. (link)Cite
• Nabong, E., Opdyke, A., Alinsunurin, M.K., Merrill, S., McDonald, G., Jensen, P. (2021) “Exploring the Role of Shelter and Livelihoods Recovery.” Roadmap for Research: A Collaborative Research Framework for Humanitarian Shelter and Settlements Assistance. Twigg, J. and Babister, L. (Eds.), 97-104. InterAction. (link)Cite
• Crété, E., Hosta, J., Hendriks, E., Opdyke, A., Yadav, S., Rakotnirina, M., Moles, O., Maskey, P.M., Guragain, R., Joshi, L., Sieffert, Y., Garnier, P., Flinn, B. (2021) “Incorporating Local Building Practices in Response.” Roadmap for Research: A Collaborative Research Framework for Humanitarian Shelter and Settlements Assistance. Twigg, J. and Babister, L. (Eds.), 129-136. InterAction. (link)Cite
• Keogh, R., Birzer, C., Brown, N., Cheng, E., Machado, M., Newman, C., Opdyke, A., Smith, J., Stoakley, A., Turner, J. (2020) “Humanitarian Engineering in Australia & New Zealand: Past, Present, and a Way Forward.” Burleson, G. (Ed.), Engineering for Change. (link)Cite
• Opdyke, A., Dalgado, D., and Maynard, V. (2017) “Overview of Typhoon Haiyan.” Shelter Projects 2015-2016. A. Piccioli, J. Ashmore, K. Kosareff, and J. Mamo, eds., International Organization for Migration (IOM), 32-35. ISBN: 978-92-9068-736-8 (link)Cite
• Opdyke, A., Javernick-Will, A., and Koschmann, M. (2017) “Typhoon Haiyan: Shelter Case Studies.” Mortenson Center in Engineering for Developing Communities, University of Colorado Boulder. (link)Cite

Conference Papers

• Nabong, E., Verder, K., Mars, A., and Opdyke, A. (2025) “Using Agent-Based Modelling to Analyse Typhoon Displacement in the Philippines.” Aceh International Workshop and Expo on Sustainable Tsunami Disaster Recovery. Sydney, Australia. October 2022. Springer. 499-515. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-81072-5_36Cite
• Hadlos, A., Opdyke, A., and Hadigheh, A. (2025) “Development of a Rapid Visual Survey Tool for Multi-Hazard Housing Safety of Non-Engineered Construction.” Aceh International Workshop and Expo on Sustainable Tsunami Disaster Recovery. Sydney, Australia. October 2022. Springer. 289-304. Doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-81072-5_19Cite
• Alfian, D., Meilianda, E., Ahmad, A., Syukri, M., and Opdyke, A. “Application of Spatial Model the Contribution of Land Subsidence Caused by Palm Oil Plantations Land Clearing to the Escalating Flood Risk in the Trumon Area, South Aceh Regency, Indonesia.” Aceh International Symposium on Civil Engineering. Banda Aceh, Indonesia. October 2023. doi: 10.1051/e3sconf/202447601056Cite
• Alfian, D., Meilianda, E., Ahmad, A., Syukri, M., and Opdyke, A. “Flood Simulation to Determine Flood Hazard Susceptibility of Downstream Singkil Watershed in Aceh Province” Aceh International Workshop and Expo on Sustainable Tsunami Disaster Recovery. Yogyakarta, Indonesia. October 2023. doi: 10.1051/e3sconf/202344701007Cite
• Opdyke, A. and Warren, I. (2021) “Service-Learning Remotely: Lessons from Delivery in Humanitarian Engineering During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Australasian Association for Engineering Education Conference. Perth, WA, Australia, December 2021. (link)Cite
• Hadigheh, A., Vulic, J., Burridge, M., Goldfinch, T., Thomas, J. and Opdyke, A. (2019) “Preliminary Evaluation of Immersive and Collaborative Virtual Labs in a Structural Engineering Unit of Study.” Australasian Association for Engineering Education Conference. Brisbane, QLD, Australia, December 2019. (link)Cite
• Goldwyn, B., Opdyke, A., and Javernick-Will, A. (2019) “Humanitarian Shelter and Settlements Research Priorities.” Engineering Project Organization Conference. Vail, CO, USA, June 2019.Cite
• Venable, C., Opdyke, A., Javernick-Will, A., and Liel, A. (2018) “Community Participation in Post-Disaster Shelter Programs: Examining the Evolution of Participation in Planning, Design, and Construction.” Construction Research Congress, New Orleans, LA, USA, April 2018. doi: 10.1061/9780784481295.023Cite
• Opdyke, A., Javernick-Will, A., Koschmann, M., and Moench, H. (2016) “Characterizing Post-Disaster Shelter Design and Material Selection: Lessons from Typhoon Yolanda in the Philippines.” Construction Research Congress, San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA, June 2016. doi: 10.1061/9780784479827.148Cite
• Opdyke, A., Javernick-Will, A., Koschmann, M., and Moench, H. (2016) “A Constitutive Communication Lens of Stakeholder Participation in Post-Disaster Recovery.” Engineering Project Organization Conference, Cle Elum, WA, USA, June 2016. Awarded Best Paper (link)Cite
• Zerio, A., Opdyke, A., and Javernick-Will, A. (2016) “Post-Disaster Reconstruction Training Effectiveness.” Engineering Project Organization Conference, Cle Elum, WA, USA, June 2016. (link)Cite
• Opdyke, A., Javernick-Will, A., Koschmann, M., and Moench, H. (2015) “Emergent Coordination Practice in Post-Disaster Planning of Infrastructure Systems.” Engineering Project Organization Conference, Edinburgh, UK, June 2015. (link)Cite
• Opdyke, A. and Javernick-Will, A. (2014) “Building Coordination Capacity: Post-Disaster Organizational Twitter Networks.” Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Global Humanitarian Technology Conference, San Jose, CA, USA, October 2014. doi: 10.1109/GHTC.2014.6970265Cite
• Opdyke, A. and Javernick-Will, A. (2014) “Resilient and Sustainable Infrastructure Systems: The Role of Coordination, Stakeholder Participation, and Training in Post-Disaster Construction.” Engineering Project Organization Conference, Granby, CO, USA, July 2014 (link)Cite

Blogs and Commentary

• See, S., Opdyke, A., and Banki, S. (2025) “When the Ground Shakes in a Fractured State: Why Integrated Data Matters in Myanmar.” Overseas Development Institute Humanitarian Practice Network.Cite
• Muir, G. and Opdyke, A. (2025) “We need to stop creating disaster risk.” PreventionWeb.Cite
• Nabong, E., Opdyke, A., See, S., and Besarra. I. (2024) “Manila is reeling after a super typhoon. We must prepare fast-growing megacities for worsening disasters.” The Conversation.Cite
• Opdyke, A. (2023) “Secondary Crises after the Turkey-Syria Earthquakes are Now the Greatest Threat to Life.” The Conversation. (article in Indonesian)Cite
• He, I. (2022) ““Building Back Better” Than What? Lessons in Indonesia after Volcanic Eruptions.” New Mandala.Cite
• Dibley, T., Opdyke, A., Howard, A., and Pertiwi, P. P. (2021) “Why Involving People with Disability in Preparing for Disasters Leads to Better Outcomes.” The Conversation. (article in Indonesian)Cite
• Opdyke, A. and Bodo, D. (2017) “Lessons from Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in the Education Sector from the Philippines.” PreventionWeb.Cite
• Opdyke, A., Tabo, P., and Javernick-Will, A. (2017) “Urban Sheltering: Evidence on Hosting and Rental Support.” Overseas Development Institute Humanitarian Practice Network.Cite
• Opdyke, A. and Javernick-Will, A. (2016) “Re-Envisioning Evacuation: Reducing Mortality Through Social Development and Community Sheltering.” PreventionWeb.Cite
• Opdyke, A. and Javernick-Will, A. (2015) “Co-Creating Knowledge of Resilience Principles through Local Stories.” PreventionWeb.Cite

Datasets

• Opdyke, A. and Besarra, I. (2024) “High-Resolution Elevation Model and Orthomosaic of the Municipality of Carigara, Leyte, Philippines.” The University of Sydney. doi: 10.25910/rebb-0936Cite

Other Outputs

• Opdyke, A., Latham, Z., and Barrett-Lennard, G. (2024) “Uncertain Waters: A Game of Collective Cooperation and Climate Change.” The University of Sydney. doi: 10.25910/0vev-ab45Cite